The Unintended Consequences of the World Cup
- by Allon Raiz, May 2010
I still sift through my Junk Mail before I delete it because I invariably find an innocent -and often important - email that has been regarded as spam by the filters. I nearly lost a big deal because of a misallocated email and so now I scan the junk mail for real emails.
The unintended consequence of spam filters is the occasional lost email. Sometimes these lost emails are innocuous; sometimes they are life-changing. Everything has unintended consequences. Sifting through my Junk Mail, and finding a significant mail, got me thinking about the notion of unintended consequences. What, I wonder, will be the unintended consequences of the World Cup?
I don’t want to be a party pooper and I certainly cannot deny that the World Cup will have a tremendously positive effect on business in South Africa. However, I cannot help but caution that the event may very well have unintended consequences on small business in South Africa.
The butterfly effect is an eloquent metaphor, used in Chaos Theory, to explain the interdependence of conditions. According to the theory, the butterfly flapping its wings, in Johannesburg, could cause an earthquake in China. A volcano in Iceland effectively shut down air traffic in Europe. The after-effects are still being felt, weeks after the event. The “unintended consequence” of a volcano in Iceland, some 1,800 km from London, will have an effect on the British jet fuel industry, the hotel industry and countless others, some for the better but mostly for the worse.
So what can small businesses do to ensure that we do not land up as a casualty? Build up appropriate reserves of stock, leave time and cash. If you are dependent on suppliers, make sure that they are on track to deliver to you. If you have orders to fulfill, make sure your staff are on board. In this regard, communication is key: ensure that your team understand the rules during this time. Create fair policies that work for everyone but that do not put your business in jeopardy. Incorporate the event: Use games as team building exercises. Finally, despite all the hype and euphoria, plan for the worst: find alternatives and build backup plans now.
On the 15th of May 2004, the butterfly flapped its wings in Zurich: Sepp Blatter announced to the world that South Africa would host the 2010 World Cup. Small businesses must plan well to ensure that the unintended consequence does not include filing for bankruptcy.
Allon Raiz is the founder and CEO of Raizcorp, the only privately-held, unfunded, profitable business incubator on the African continent, supporting in excess of 200 businesses. Allon is a World Economic Forum Young Global Leader and sits on the board of the NEF (National Empowerment Fund).
Raizcorp
Tel: +27 11 566 2000
www.raizcorp.co.za
- by Allon Raiz, May 2010
Every week – to judge by the emails I receive - I am both the luckiest and the unluckiest man alive. Every week I am notified that I have won tens of millions of dollars from lotteries all over the world, while other people trust me so much they want to give me 10% of their ill-gotten monies if I assist them to transfer these monies to my account. All I have to do is give them my account details. On the counter side, there was a vicious rumour being spread about me that I needed a penis extension. Email after email sends me details of how to go about ensuring a more pronounced manhood.
Since I installed my spam filter, I no longer get these emails. I sometimes even test my filters by sending an email to myself with the heading, “You have won the lottery”. It never arrives in my Inbox. My spam filters send it straight to the Junk Mail Folder.
Since I installed my spam filter, I no longer get these emails. I sometimes even test my filters by sending an email to myself with the heading, “You have won the lottery”. It never arrives in my Inbox. My spam filters send it straight to the Junk Mail Folder.
I still sift through my Junk Mail before I delete it because I invariably find an innocent -and often important - email that has been regarded as spam by the filters. I nearly lost a big deal because of a misallocated email and so now I scan the junk mail for real emails.
The unintended consequence of spam filters is the occasional lost email. Sometimes these lost emails are innocuous; sometimes they are life-changing. Everything has unintended consequences. Sifting through my Junk Mail, and finding a significant mail, got me thinking about the notion of unintended consequences. What, I wonder, will be the unintended consequences of the World Cup?
I don’t want to be a party pooper and I certainly cannot deny that the World Cup will have a tremendously positive effect on business in South Africa. However, I cannot help but caution that the event may very well have unintended consequences on small business in South Africa. Just this morning I heard a caller on radio suggest that Friday, 11 June be declared a public holiday. I get the excitement and I too love the display of pride and patriotism that seems evident on the roads at the moment. But everything has unintended consequences. I spend so much time watching how entrepreneurs struggle to keep it together during ‘ordinary’ times, that I feel duty-bound to at least highlight the possible unintended consequences of the upcoming tournament.
I predict that many small businesses, particularly those that are marginal, or in an early stage of growth will close down because of this event. These businesses will not be able to absorb the loss of productivity and income that will result from employees that are absent, hung-over or uninterested in work. Orders will not be signed, meetings will be cancelled and deadlines will pass because clients, too, will be absent, hung-over or uninterested.
I predict that many small businesses, particularly those that are marginal, or in an early stage of growth will close down because of this event. These businesses will not be able to absorb the loss of productivity and income that will result from employees that are absent, hung-over or uninterested in work. Orders will not be signed, meetings will be cancelled and deadlines will pass because clients, too, will be absent, hung-over or uninterested.
The butterfly effect is an eloquent metaphor, used in Chaos Theory, to explain the interdependence of conditions. According to the theory, the butterfly flapping its wings, in Johannesburg, could cause an earthquake in China. A volcano in Iceland effectively shut down air traffic in Europe. The after-effects are still being felt, weeks after the event. The “unintended consequence” of a volcano in Iceland, some 1,800 km from London, will have an effect on the British jet fuel industry, the hotel industry and countless others, some for the better but mostly for the worse.
So what can small businesses do to ensure that we do not land up as a casualty? Build up appropriate reserves of stock, leave time and cash. If you are dependent on suppliers, make sure that they are on track to deliver to you. If you have orders to fulfill, make sure your staff are on board. In this regard, communication is key: ensure that your team understand the rules during this time. Create fair policies that work for everyone but that do not put your business in jeopardy. Incorporate the event: Use games as team building exercises. Finally, despite all the hype and euphoria, plan for the worst: find alternatives and build backup plans now.
On the 15th of May 2004, the butterfly flapped its wings in Zurich: Sepp Blatter announced to the world that South Africa would host the 2010 World Cup. Small businesses must plan well to ensure that the unintended consequence does not include filing for bankruptcy.
Allon Raiz is the founder and CEO of Raizcorp, the only privately-held, unfunded, profitable business incubator on the African continent, supporting in excess of 200 businesses. Allon is a World Economic Forum Young Global Leader and sits on the board of the NEF (National Empowerment Fund). Tel: +27 11 566 2000
www.raizcorp.co.za




